JSM 2005 Online Program

Abstract #303961

This is the preliminary program for the 2005 Joint Statistical Meetings in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 7-10, 2005); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

To View the Program:
You may choose to view all activities of the program or just parts of it at any one time. All activities are arranged by date and time.

The views expressed here are those of the individual authors
and not necessarily those of the ASA or its board, officers, or staff.

The Program has labeled the meeting rooms with "letters" preceding the name of the room, designating in which facility the room is located:

Minneapolis Convention Center = “MCC” Hilton Minneapolis Hotel = “H” Hyatt Regency Minneapolis = “HY”

Back to main JSM 2005 Program page

Legend:

= Applied Session,

= Theme Session,

= Presenter

Activity Number:	387
Type:	Topic Contributed
Date/Time:	Wednesday, August 10, 2005 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor:	Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
Abstract - #303961
Title:	A Bayesian SEIR Approach to Modeling Smallpox Epidemics
Author(s):	Vanja Dukic*+ and Bret Elderd and Greg Dwyer
Companies:	The University of Chicago and The University of Chicago and The University of Chicago
Address:	MC2007, Chicago, IL, 60637, United States
Keywords:	SIR models ; Bayesian epidemics ; smallpox ; vaccination
Abstract:	Much of the public-policy debate regarding smallpox vaccination has been focused on mass versus trace vaccination strategies; namely, whether the public can be better protected by vaccination of the entire population or of only those who have been in contact with infected individuals. Much of the previous work on smallpox epidemics has generally employed relatively complex deterministic models, with many biological parameters fixed, and focusing mostly on a single point estimate of the disease reproductive rate (the number of newly infected individuals arising from a single infected individual). We present a Bayesian analysis of multiple past smallpox epidemics. We obtain an estimate of the distribution of the disease reproductive rate rather than a point estimate, taking into account the uncertainty in other parameters in the model, and consequently allowing more informed decisionmaking with regard to the public policy of smallpox inoculation. This is joint work with B. Elderd and G. Dwyer. Although this research is supported by EPA STAR grant R-82940201-0, it does not necessarily reflect EPA views.

The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

Back to the full JSM 2005 program