JSM 2005 - Toronto

Abstract #303915

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Legend: = Applied Session, = Theme Session, = Presenter
Activity Number: 17
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Sunday, August 7, 2005 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
Abstract - #303915
Title: Physical-Statistical Modeling of Ice-Stream Dynamics
Author(s): Chen Quin Lam*+ and Mark Berliner and Yongku Kim and Noel Cressie and Kenneth Jezek
Companies: The Ohio State University and The Ohio State University and The Ohio State University and The Ohio State University and The Ohio State University
Address: 1958 Neil Avenue, Columbus, OH, 43210-1247, United States
Keywords: Physical-Statistical Modeling ; Markov chain Monte Carlo ; Ice streams
Abstract:

Ice streams are believed to play a major role in determining the response of ice sheets to climate change and in determining global sea level. Better understanding of the complex processes governing the flow of ice streams is essential for developing models for future evolution of the polar ice sheets. In this project, new observational data collected from a large section of Greenland ice sheets using remote-sensing techniques are used. Observations such as basal elevation, surface elevation, and surface velocity are useful in exploring the behavior of ice streams movement using simple models based on driving stress and velocity. While geophysical models lie at the core of the analysis, we present the use of a Bayesian statistical approach to account hierarchically for various uncertainties present in both models and observations. This leads to the development of a physical-statistical model. Inferences are based on Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques.

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Revised March 2005