JSM 2005 - Toronto

Abstract #303889

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Legend: = Applied Session, = Theme Session, = Presenter
Activity Number: 220
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 9, 2005 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Health Policy Statistics
Abstract - #303889
Title: Predicting Medical Expenditures Using the SF-12 and Prior Expenditures
Author(s): Joel Cohen*+ and John Fleishman
Companies: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality and Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality
Address: 540 Gaither Road, Rockville, MD, 20850, United States
Keywords: medical expenditures ; prediction models ; SF-12
Abstract:

Risk-adjustment models often use demographic or diagnostic information to predict health care expenditures. Research based on samples from restricted populations suggest patient-reported health status measures can enhance prediction of expenditures and improve risk adjustment. This project examines relationships between measures of physical and mental health status based on the SF-12 fielded in the MEPS self-administered questionnaire in 2000 and expenditures for health care in 2001. It then tests the behavior of several alternative models of estimating that relationship. Using expenditure prediction models suggested by Manning and Mullahy, we examine the extent to which the SF-12 physical and mental health scores improve prediction over and above demographic characteristics and self-reported chronic conditions. We also examine whether the SF-12 adds to predictions based on prior expenditures. The results indicate that adding the SF-12 to a regression model improved the prediction of subsequent medical expenditures.

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