JSM 2005 - Toronto

Abstract #303627

This is the preliminary program for the 2005 Joint Statistical Meetings in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 7-10, 2005); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

To View the Program:
You may choose to view all activities of the program or just parts of it at any one time. All activities are arranged by date and time.



The views expressed here are those of the individual authors
and not necessarily those of the ASA or its board, officers, or staff.

The Program has labeled the meeting rooms with "letters" preceding the name of the room, designating in which facility the room is located:

Minneapolis Convention Center = “MCC” Hilton Minneapolis Hotel = “H” Hyatt Regency Minneapolis = “HY”

Back to main JSM 2005 Program page
Legend: = Applied Session, = Theme Session, = Presenter
Activity Number: 217
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 9, 2005 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract - #303627
Title: New Methods for Back-calculating the Number of HIV Infections in the United States
Author(s): Philip Rhodes*+ and M. Kathleen Glynn
Companies: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Address: 1600 Clifton Road, Atlanta, GA, 30345, United States
Keywords: Back-calculation ; infectious disease models ; HIV/AIDS ; EM algorithm
Abstract:

There are no direct estimates of the number of HIV infections that have occurred in the United States. Early in the epidemic, indirect estimates were obtained by back-calculation methods using AIDS diagnoses dates and the estimated incubation period from infection to AIDS. This method was not useful for estimating recent infections due to the length of the typical incubation period (8--10 years). In addition, changes in the AIDS case definition (immunologic criteria) and treatment effects of antiretroviral agents further discouraged the use of these methods in the U.S. New methods have been proposed that incorporate more information about HIV disease history and overcome many of these difficulties. We present a model based on the first-known detection date and whether the date is concurrent with an AIDS diagnosis. The model avoids treatment complications as only diagnosed individuals receive treatment. Because detections can occur early in the infection process, the model provides estimates for recent time periods. We give estimates for the U.S. HIV epidemic using national HIV/AIDS surveillance data reported to CDC and explore effects of violations of model assumptions.

  • The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
  • Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

Back to the full JSM 2005 program

JSM 2005 For information, contact jsm@amstat.org or phone (888) 231-3473. If you have questions about the Continuing Education program, please contact the Education Department.
Revised March 2005