JSM 2005 Online Program

Abstract #303621

This is the preliminary program for the 2005 Joint Statistical Meetings in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 7-10, 2005); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

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Activity Number:	51
Type:	Invited
Date/Time:	Sunday, August 7, 2005 : 4:00 PM to 5:50 PM
Sponsor:	Section on Statistical Computing
Abstract - #303621
Title:	The Dating of Historical Documents
Author(s):	Gelila Tilahun*+ and Andrey Feuerverger
Companies:	University of Toronto and University of Toronto
Address:	100 St.George St., Toronto, ON, M5S 3G3, Canada
Keywords:	kernel smoothing ; dating ; bandwidth ; word pattern
Abstract:	Accurately dating historical manuscripts is of paramount importance to historians. The DEEDS documents are a collection of medieval manuscripts from the county of Essex, England. Statistical methods are used to date the documents in the DEEDS corpus. In order to develop and test the methods, we concentrate on the documents in the corpus that are already dated. We divide the documents under consideration into three subsets: training, validation, and test sets. We compare observed word patterns from the validation set to those in the training set and apply kernel smoothing on the occurrence of word patterns along the time axis. Once an optimal bandwidth for this smoothing has been determined, we carry out date estimation for documents in the test set. We present errors of the dates estimated for documents in the test set and their corresponding confidence intervals determined by the bootstrap method. This is joint work with Andrey Feuerverger.

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