JSM 2005 - Toronto

Abstract #303617

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Legend: = Applied Session, = Theme Session, = Presenter
Activity Number: 217
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 9, 2005 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract - #303617
Title: Using Occupancy Models To Estimate the Number of Duplicate Cases in a Surveillance System Without Unique Identifiers
Author(s): Timothy Green*+ and Ruiguang Song and Matthew McKenna and M. Kathleen Glynn
Companies: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Address: 1600 Clifton Road NE, Atlanta, GA, 30333, United States
Keywords: case surveillance ; duplicate reporting ; occupancy model ; unique identifier
Abstract:

Public health surveillance systems that monitor conditions with long natural histories can receive multiple reports from different sources regarding the same affected individual. Several systems for surveillance of one such condition, the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), use codes composed of combinations of nonunique personal characteristics such as birth date, sound of name, and gender as patient identifiers. As a result, these systems cannot distinguish between several individuals having identical codes and a unique individual erroneously represented several times. We applied results for occupancy models with equal and unequal occupancy probabilities to estimate the potential magnitude of duplicate case counting for AIDS cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We provide formulas to calculate the exact variance of the number of empty or occupied cells. We also consider an occupancy model for cells filled with balls of different colors. These results can be applied to evaluating duplicate reporting in other surveillance systems that have no unique identifier for each individual.

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Revised March 2005