JSM 2005 Online Program

Abstract #303588

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Activity Number:	351
Type:	Topic Contributed
Date/Time:	Wednesday, August 10, 2005 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor:	Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
Abstract - #303588
Title:	Bayesian Prediction Limits for Atlantic Tropical Storm Occurrences
Author(s):	Valbona Bejleri*+ and Alexander White
Companies:	American University and American University
Address:	Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Washington, DC, 20016-8050, United States
Keywords:	exact prediction limits ; Poisson modeling ; Bayesian ; informative prior ; noninformative prior ; bootstrap
Abstract:	In this paper, we construct the exact prediction limits for the number of tropical storms occurring during some time scale in the future using a Poisson modeling; both frequentist and Bayesian approaches are considered. When setting up the informative prior, we consider the conjugate class of gamma distributions where data that record the number of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones per year from 1851 to 1943 are considered as prior information. Simulation techniques and bootstrap methods are used to estimate the distributionassigned on the parameter. The relationship between prediction limits derived using the Bayesian approach when a noninformative prior is assumed on the parameter with those limits derived using a frequentist approach is discussed in particular.

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