The Migration Component in a Population Projections Model

• Activity Number: 273
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Tuesday, August 9, 2005 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
• Sponsor: Social Statistics Section
• Author(s): Charles D. Palit*+ and David Egan-Robertson and Balkrishna Kale and Paul Voss
• Companies: University of Wisconsin, Madison and Wisconsin Department of Administration and University of Wisconsin, Madison and University of Wisconsin, Madison
• Keywords: Migration ; Migration Rates ; Population Projections

Abstract

Future scenarios of fertility, mortality, and migration form the crux of population projections based on the widely used cohort component model. Population projections often are deemed as forecasts and used for planning, marketing, and policymaking purposes. While all three components of population change are important in this context, migration is the most difficult to handle. We discuss the problems confronted in this regard and propose solutions. Total gain or loss to an area's population through migration may be expected to change with the accompanying changes in different age-gender groups. We underscore the need to analyze past, current, and emerging trends to determine the total amount of future migration. A procedure to project age-gender-specific migration rates consistent with the projected totals is then presented based on the findings of researchers that migration rates generally change in the same direction and magnitude for most age-gender groups. The suggested method follows the net migration path employed by many in their population projections. Finally, Wisconsin data for the 1980s and 1990s are used for evaluation purposes.