JSM 2005 Online Program

Abstract #303558

This is the preliminary program for the 2005 Joint Statistical Meetings in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 7-10, 2005); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

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Activity Number:	518
Type:	Contributed
Date/Time:	Thursday, August 11, 2005 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor:	Section on Government Statistics
Abstract - #303558
Title:	Survival Analysis of Length of Stay in Substance Abuse Treatment
Author(s):	Maxime Bokossa*+ and Alisa Male
Companies:	Synectics for Management Decisions, Inc. and Synectics for Management Decisions, Inc.
Address:	Suite 900, Arlington, VA, 22209, United States
Keywords:	Length of stay ; Proportional Hazard ; Kaplan-Meier curve
Abstract:	Length of stay (LOS) is a crucial variable in drug treatment research and has been consistently identified as having predictive validity for long-term patients in many outcome studies. The goal of this exploratory analysis was to examine the potential utility of the survival methodology in benchmarking state differences in treatment LOS. To conduct such analysis, we needed to use a patient-level dataset that covers a large number of states. The 2001 Treatment Episode Data Set (TEDS), which contains discharge records from 22 states in addition to the basic TEDS treatment admission data, seems to be the most appropriate for our type of analysis. With the available TEDS discharge data, we conducted a survival analysis to examine LOS as a state outcome measure. Hence, we derived the expected LOS survivor curve based on Cox's proportional hazard (PH) model and the observed LOS survivor curve based on Kaplan-Meier estimate. The comparison of observed versus expected survival curves by states allowed us to identify whether the PH assumption was satisfied for a given state. With the short-term residential patients, the PH model was validated in some states but failed in others.

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