Estimating Chronic Effects of Fine Particles (PM2.5) on Adult Mortality at Different Spatial and Temporal Scales

• Activity Number: 492
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Thursday, August 11, 2005 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
• Author(s): Sorina Eftim*+ and Francesca Dominici and Aidan McDermott and Scott Zeger and Jonathan M. Samet
• Companies: Johns Hopkins University and Johns Hopkins University and Johns Hopkins University and Johns Hopkins University and Johns Hopkins University
• Keywords: air pollution ; statistical models ; mortality ; epidemiology

Abstract

Our scientific objective is to investigate whether long-term (yearly) exposure to ambient fine particles is associated with all-cause mortality in the entire U.S. older adult population. We assembled a national database comprising the Medicare Cohort, which includes health death of approximately 40 million participants followed in 2000--2002 matched by the county to the National Air Pollution Monitoring Network---which includes daily values of PM2.5. We developed statistical models for estimating associations between county-specific and age-gender-race-adjusted all-cause mortality rates versus county-specific, long-term average PM2.5 separately for each month. Analyses take into account potential confounding by smoking, mobility, and socioeconomic status. The methodological approach and findings provide useful information for understanding the effects of ambient particulate matter on human health and for guiding future analyses of particulate data.