JSM 2005 Online Program

Abstract #303528

This is the preliminary program for the 2005 Joint Statistical Meetings in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 7-10, 2005); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

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Activity Number:	366
Type:	Contributed
Date/Time:	Wednesday, August 10, 2005 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor:	Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract - #303528
Title:	Trends and Risk Factors in British Female Breast Cancer
Author(s):	Patrick Carroll*+
Companies:	PAPRI
Address:	35 Canonbury Road, London UK, N1 2DG, United Kingdom
Keywords:	Breast ; Cancer ; Reproductive ; Risk ; Factors ; Model
Abstract:	To fit the observed trends to an increasing incidence and an increased reverse gradient across social class for female breast cancer in Great Britain, modeling is proposed and forecasts made of the further increases in incidence to be anticipated in future years and further increases in the reverse gradient to be expected in England, Wales, and Scotland. The incidence trend for England and Wales is compared with Scotland using national data for successive birth cohorts of British women. The national data on the gradient across social class is examined for mortality and incidence using Scottish data. Seven reproductive and hormonal risk factors are considered: abortion (age and parity of women), age at first birth, childlessness, fertility (number of live-born children), breast feeding, hormonal contraceptives, and hormone replacement therapy. A linear regression model is fitted to make forecasts of numbers of new malignant breast cancers to be expected in future years up to 2025.

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