JSM 2005 Online Program

Abstract #303458

This is the preliminary program for the 2005 Joint Statistical Meetings in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 7-10, 2005); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

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Activity Number:	442
Type:	Topic Contributed
Date/Time:	Wednesday, August 10, 2005 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor:	Section on Government Statistics
Abstract - #303458
Title:	Backcasting and Seasonal Adjustment of Canada's National Retail Commodity Survey
Author(s):	Norman Fyfe*+ and Richard Evans
Companies:	Statistics Canada and Statistics Canada
Address:	120 Parkdale Avenue, Ottawa, ON, K1A 0T6, Canada
Keywords:	commodity ; retail ; backcasting ; seasonality
Abstract:	The Quarterly Retail Commodity Survey (QRCS) has been conducted by Statistics Canada since the first quarter of 1997. It breaks down retail sales into 144 commodity groups. It is a subsample of---and benchmarked to---the Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS), a parallel survey that measures sales by store type. Thus, the QRCS can provide a commodity breakdown of sales by store type and is one of the few subannual surveys of this type in the world to do so. However, the QRCS is not seasonally adjusted, making comparisons to the MRTS data difficult. Moreover, the QRCS's recent redesign saw it abandon the 1980 Canadian Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) and adopt the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS), introducing a break in the survey's time series. This article describes the challenges faced in restoring historic continuity to the QRCS and introduces new QRCS backcasted and seasonally adjusted series. The article also gives a brief outline of the results obtained.

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