JSM 2005 Online Program

Abstract #303424

This is the preliminary program for the 2005 Joint Statistical Meetings in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 7-10, 2005); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

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Activity Number:	126
Type:	Topic Contributed
Date/Time:	Monday, August 8, 2005 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor:	Section on Government Statistics
Abstract - #303424
Title:	Comparison between Chained CPI-U and Regular CPI-U: All-U.S. Indexes at Lower Item-aggregate Levels (2000--2003)
Author(s):	Owen Shoemaker*+
Companies:	Bureau of Labor Statistics
Address:	2 Massachusetts Ave NE Rm 3655, Washington, DC, 20212-0022, United States
Keywords:	Tornqvist ; Stratified Random Group ; Superlative Index
Abstract:	In February 2005, the BLS calculated and published its third annual set of C-CPI-U indexes---for 2003. The C-CPI-U (Chained - Consumer Price Index - Urban) is calculated and published every year, with a one-year lag, using a Tornqvist formula. Its set of weights are updated yearly, so a unique set of monthly weights is available for both time t as well as for time t-n. The C-CPI-U can thus be labeled a "superlative" index. By contrast, the regular CPI-U uses weights that are, at a minimum, at least two years old. It also uses a combination (hybrid) of Geomeans and Laspeyres formulas as its final estimator. For 12-month price changes, the All-US-All-Items chained C-CPI-U index results continue to diverge (significantly lower) from regular CPI-U index results, but the divergences at the lower aggregate levels (major group level and then lower) are not significantly different, except in a few isolated item groups. In this paper, we investigate the nature of these lower-level divergences using newly calculated chained C-CPI-U standard errors to construct our confidence intervals.

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