JSM 2005 Online Program

Abstract #303376

This is the preliminary program for the 2005 Joint Statistical Meetings in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 7-10, 2005); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

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Activity Number:	196
Type:	Contributed
Date/Time:	Monday, August 8, 2005 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor:	Social Statistics Section
Abstract - #303376
Title:	Mediaphysics: Statistical Physics of Media Processes
Author(s):	Dmitri Kuznetsov*+ and Igor Mandel
Companies:	Media Planning Group and Media Planning Group
Address:	101 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA, 02199, USA
Keywords:	Econophysics ; sociophysics ; opinions propagation ; mean-field theory ; mass media ; marketing efficiency
Abstract:	A statistical-physics approach to modeling and analysis of complicated social mass phenomena (marketing, economics, and politics) is developed in this paper. A keystone of the approach is an analysis of population distribution between two or many alternatives: brands, political affiliations, or opinions. Relative distances between a state of a "person's mind" and the alternatives are measures of propensity to buy (to affiliate or to have a certain opinion). The distribution of population by those relative distances is time-dependent and affected by external (economic, social, marketing) and internal (mean-field influential propagation of opinions, synergy effects, etc.) factors considered as fields. Specifically, the opinion-influence field can be generalized to incorporate important elements of Ising-spin-based sociophysical models (Sznajd and other approaches) and kinetic-equation ones. The distributions were described by a Schrödinger-type equation in terms of Green's functions. The developed approach was applied to a real media efficiency problem for a large company where it generally demonstrated good results despite low initial correlations of factors and target variable.

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