JSM 2005 - Toronto

Abstract #303349

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Activity Number: 492
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Thursday, August 11, 2005 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
Abstract - #303349
Title: Exploding Houses, Coalbed Methane, and Trends
Author(s): George Heine*+
Companies: BLM
Address: 200 Sunset Lane, Pueblo, CO, 81005, United States
Keywords: geology ; environmental ; nonparametric ; trend ; spatial
Abstract:

Many geologists are concerned that large-scale natural gas extraction near a coal seam can cause surface leakage of methane. Dangerous leakage may occur some distance from the well. Houses have actually exploded because of undetected methane leakage. In southwest Colorado, the Bureau of Land Management has been measuring soil vapor levels periodically at several hundred locations, running across known coal seams. As much as six years of data is available at some locations. Nonparametric trend measures show the numbers of sites with increasing and decreasing trend are both much larger than would be predicted by chance. The challenge facing the statistician is to model geographic patterns and determine what statements can be made about global trends.

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Revised March 2005