JSM 2005 Online Program

Abstract #303170

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Activity Number:	330
Type:	Contributed
Date/Time:	Tuesday, August 9, 2005 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor:	Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
Abstract - #303170
Title:	Likelihoods from Summary Statistics: Recent Divergence between Species
Author(s):	Scotland Leman*+
Companies:	Duke University
Address:	1800 Shelton Avenue, Durham, NC, 27707, United States
Keywords:	Markov Chain ; Importance Sampling ; Molecular ; Evolution ; Bayesian
Abstract:	In this paper, we developed a method for approximating likelihoods of population parameters from multiple summary statistics. We estimated population parameters that provide information about demographic history, including the time since divergence of two nonintrogressing populations and the effective population sizes of the extant and ancestral populations. Our importance sampling method uses a simple proposal distribution to generate genealogical and mutational histories consistent with the observed array of summary statistics and corrects the probability by determining the exact likelihood from a system of recursions. We applied the method to DPS2002 sequences sampled from closely related species of the Drosophila pseudoobscura group. Tight linkage to a fixed paracentric inversion that strongly contributes to reproductive isolation prevents introgression at this gene between the species studied. Our method, which uses sampling to propose genealogical and mutational histories only, very rapidly generates maximum likelihood estimates that compare well with those obtained by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods based on entire nucleotide sequences.

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