JSM 2005 Online Program

Abstract #303091

This is the preliminary program for the 2005 Joint Statistical Meetings in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 7-10, 2005); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

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Activity Number:	366
Type:	Contributed
Date/Time:	Wednesday, August 10, 2005 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor:	Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract - #303091
Title:	Modeling a Computer Virus Epidemic
Author(s):	Lawrence Lessner*+ and Sanjay Goel
Companies:	SUNY/NYS Department of Health and University at Albany, SUNY
Address:	26 Wilan Lane, Albany, NY, 12203, United States
Keywords:	epidemic ; model
Abstract:	Presented here is a model for the spread of a virus in a network of computers. There are three states: susceptible, infected, and immune. The infection process is descretized, and the model uses combinatoric probability to obtain the expected number of new infections in each time step. The model provides a realistic method to define a simple epidemic, easily simulated, and a way to verify the use of differential equation models. While the initial model is homogeneous with respect to adequate contact and the choice of contacts, subsequent models will be more general. Addressed here are the effect of an intervention and the issues about the effectiveness of an intervention. This is a good model to introduce how an epidemic works either in a computer network or human system.

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