JSM 2005 Online Program

Abstract #303024

This is the preliminary program for the 2005 Joint Statistical Meetings in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 7-10, 2005); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

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Activity Number:	351
Type:	Topic Contributed
Date/Time:	Wednesday, August 10, 2005 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor:	Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
Abstract - #303024
Title:	Bayesian Hierarchical Models for Fecundability
Author(s):	Cuirong Ren*+ and Dongchu Sun and Paul Speckman and Chong Z. He and Shanna Swan
Companies:	South Dakota State University and University of Missouri, Columbia and University of Missouri, Columbia and University of Missouri, Columbia and University of Missouri, Columbia
Address:	P O Box 2207A, Brookings, SD, 57007, United States
Keywords:	Fecundability ; Probability of conception ; Mixture model ; Gibbs sampling
Abstract:	Bayesian hierarchical models for fecundability that include protected intercourse are considered by Ren et al. (2004). However, the random effects corresponding to couples in probit mixture models used to model the probability of cycle viability are not significant in an analysis of data from the California Women's Reproductive Health Study. In this article, we consider a simplified probit model excluding the random effects for probability of cycle viability. The results for the same data turn out to be very close to those based on the full model. This simpler model eliminates a large number of latent variables in the model and reduces computation time by approximately 70%.

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