JSM 2005 Online Program

Abstract #303005

This is the preliminary program for the 2005 Joint Statistical Meetings in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 7-10, 2005); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

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Activity Number:	92
Type:	Topic Contributed
Date/Time:	Monday, August 8, 2005 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor:	Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
Abstract - #303005
Title:	Sensitivity Analysis and Informative Priors for Longitudinal Binary Data with Outcome-Related Dropout
Author(s):	Joo Yeon Lee*+
Companies:	Brown University
Address:	167 Angell Street, Providence, RI, 02912, United States
Keywords:	Outcome-related dropout ; marginalized transition model ; pattern mixture model ; sensitivity analysis ; informative priors
Abstract:	This paper develops the pattern mixture models, composed of marginalized transition models within pattern for repeated binary data. Within this framework, we propose several approaches to systematic sensitivity analysis that will allow the analyst to explore the effects of possibly outcome-related dropout and show how to represent or convey uncertainty about common assumption such as MAR using prior distributions on the sensitivity parameters. Besides sensitivity analysis, this invites the possibility that user-supplied prior distributions that reflect beliefs about the distribution of missing responses can be incorporated into the final inferences. Methods will be illustrated using data from the OASIS study, a longitudinal clinical trial of a new behavioral intervention for smoking cessation. The primary goal of this trial is to examine the effect of new intervention on reducing the smoking rate at the end of the study compared to standard treatment. A high portion of subjects (55% and 40% for enhancement and standard treatment, respectively) dropped out.

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