JSM 2005 - Toronto

Abstract #302819

This is the preliminary program for the 2005 Joint Statistical Meetings in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 7-10, 2005); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

To View the Program:
You may choose to view all activities of the program or just parts of it at any one time. All activities are arranged by date and time.



The views expressed here are those of the individual authors
and not necessarily those of the ASA or its board, officers, or staff.

The Program has labeled the meeting rooms with "letters" preceding the name of the room, designating in which facility the room is located:

Minneapolis Convention Center = “MCC” Hilton Minneapolis Hotel = “H” Hyatt Regency Minneapolis = “HY”

Back to main JSM 2005 Program page
Legend: = Applied Session, = Theme Session, = Presenter
Activity Number: 397
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 10, 2005 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Government Statistics
Abstract - #302819
Title: Estimation of the Change in Total Employment Using the U.S. Current Employment Statistics Survey
Author(s): Bogong Li*+ and Partha Lahiri
Companies: Bureau of Labor Statistics and University of Maryland
Address: 2 Massachusetts Ave NE, Washington, DC, 20212, United States
Keywords: Current employment statistics ; Linear regression model
Abstract:

In every month on the first working Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases its preliminary estimates of the total nonfarm business payroll employment and the change in total employment from the prior month. These estimates are produced using the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, which is an ongoing national probability sample survey of all nonfarm establishments in the United States. The preliminary estimates are revised a number of times to incorporate late reporting in the CES sample and also to incorporate the most recent benchmark population information. In this paper, we develop a statistical method that has the potential to minimize the amount of revision between the preliminary estimates and the second revision of the estimates. Based on the historical data, we first build an appropriate model that links these two estimates and then use this relationship to predict the second revision from the knowledge of the preliminary estimates for the current month. The preliminary results obtained from our study are encouraging.

  • The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
  • Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

Back to the full JSM 2005 program

JSM 2005 For information, contact jsm@amstat.org or phone (888) 231-3473. If you have questions about the Continuing Education program, please contact the Education Department.
Revised March 2005