JSM 2005 Online Program

Abstract #302787

This is the preliminary program for the 2005 Joint Statistical Meetings in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 7-10, 2005); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

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= Applied Session,

= Theme Session,

= Presenter

Activity Number:	297
Type:	Invited
Date/Time:	Tuesday, August 9, 2005 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor:	WNAR
Abstract - #302787
Title:	The Limits of Prediction: Ontological Uncertainty and Action
Author(s):	David A. Lane*+
Companies:	University of Modena and Reggio Emilia
Address:	Via G Giglioli Valle 9, Reggio Emilia, 42100, Italy
Keywords:
Abstract:	Seymour Geisser was keenly interested in the foundations of statistics, to which he made a number of important contributions. He often expressed his foundational ideas in the form of dicta. Two were "Statistics Is Prediction" and "Everything Is Statistics" (by which he meant statistics was about inference, inference is about how we know, and everything we purport to know is premised on our ways of knowing). By an illegitimate act of transitivity, may we infer that "Everything Is Prediction"? I argue that this cannot be so. Some events are inherently unpredictable in the deep sense that we cannot formulate propositions about them, never mind measure our uncertainty in their regard probabilistically. These events can effect the results of our actions and we may know this at the moment we act. In this talk, I explore the implications of these claims for the theory of action.

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