JSM 2005 - Toronto

Abstract #302652

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Legend: = Applied Session, = Theme Session, = Presenter
Activity Number: 337
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 10, 2005 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: ENAR
Abstract - #302652
Title: Combining Multimodel Numerical Experiments for Climate Change
Author(s): Douglas Nychka*+ and Reinhard Furrer
Companies: National Center for Atmospheric Research and National Center for Atmospheric Research
Address: PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO, 80305, United States
Keywords: spatial processes ; climate change ; AOGCM ; random effects model
Abstract:

This talk will give a brief overview of how geophysical models are used to predict future climate changes and of issues in transferring the geophysical results to more immediate societal impacts. One example is public health concerns due to more extreme temperatures in urban areas. A key role statistics has to play in this process is in quantifying the uncertainty in the climate model predictions. We suggest a model with spatially correlated random effects accounting for climate model bias across a region. This model allows one to combine climate experiments and derive a probabilistic forecast of future climate change.

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Revised March 2005