JSM 2005 - Toronto

Abstract #302634

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Legend: = Applied Session, = Theme Session, = Presenter
Activity Number: 337
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 10, 2005 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: ENAR
Abstract - #302634
Title: Estimating Risk Probabilities for Wildland Fires
Author(s): Haiganoush K. Preisler*+
Companies: Pacific Southwest Research Station
Address: 800 Buchanan St., WAB, Albany, CA, 94710,
Keywords: Fire weather indices ; Fire danger indices ; forcasting ; random effects ; semi parametric regression ; spatial and temporal model
Abstract:

In 2002, there were 88,458 fires reported on federal lands. These fires burned 6,937,584 acres and 2,381 structures costing taxpayers $1.6 billion for fire suppression. On average, 4,215,089 acres of federal lands burn annually. Forecasting wildland fire risks (occurrence and size) is important to fire managers who desire to know the risks of severe events well in advance of their happening. In this talk, we will discuss the estimation of a probability model for forecasting fire risk one day, one week, or one year in advance. The model uses historic occurrence data on federal lands in addition to outputs from weather, climatological, fire behavior, and fuel models.

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Revised March 2005