JSM 2005 - Toronto

Abstract #302629

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Legend: = Applied Session, = Theme Session, = Presenter
Activity Number: 337
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 10, 2005 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: ENAR
Abstract - #302629
Title: Estimating Space-time Trends Combining Stochastic Models and Numerical Models
Author(s): Montserrat Fuentes*+
Companies: North Carolina State University
Address: Statistics Department, Raleigh, NC, 27695,
Keywords: covariance ; data assimilation ; spatial modeling ; environmental statistics
Abstract:

Estimating spatial temporal trends of air pollution levels is vital for air quality management and presents statistical problems typical of many environmental and spatial applications. Ideally, such trends would be based on a dense network of monitoring stations, but this does not always exist. Instead, there are generally two main sources of information about pollution levels: one is pollution measurements at a relatively sparse set of monitoring stations and the other is the output of the regional scale air quality models. Here, we develop formal methods for combining sources of information with different spatial resolutions for space-time trend estimation. We formulate this problem using a hierarchical model in which scientific information and output of numerical models is introduced to improve the trend estimation. We also offer a review of the current literature and approaches that use output of numerical models as a prior for trend estimation. We apply these methods to estimate the risk of mortality associated to fine particulate matter using air quality information from numerical models and monitoring stations.


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Revised March 2005