JSM 2005 - Toronto

Abstract #302571

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Legend: = Applied Session, = Theme Session, = Presenter
Activity Number: 424
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 10, 2005 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
Abstract - #302571
Title: Bayesian Estimation of Wildlife Population Sizes Using Noninformative Priors
Author(s): Chong Z. He*+ and Xiaoyin Wang
Companies: University of Missouri, Columbia and Towson University
Address: 307C Middlebush Hall, Columbia, MO, 65211,
Keywords: Bayesian estimate ; capture-recapture models ; noninformative priors ; population estimation ; small sample
Abstract:

One critical issue in the Bayesian approach is choosing the priors when there is not enough prior information to specify hyperparameters. Several improper noninformative priors for capture-recapture models were proposed in the literature. It is known that the Bayesian estimate can be sensitive to the choice of priors, especially when sample size is small to moderate. Yet, how to choose a noninformative prior for a given model remains a question. In this talk, we consider the problem of estimating the population size for capture-recapture models using noninformative priors. The capture-recapture models have prodigious application in wildlife management, ecology, software liability, epidemiological study, census undercount, and other research areas. Several commonly used noninformative priors are considered. We find the choice of noninformative priors depends on the number of sampling occasions only. The guidelines on the choice of noninformative priors are provided. The propriety of applying improper noninformative prior is discussed.

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Revised March 2005