JSM 2005 - Toronto

Abstract #302550

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Legend: = Applied Session, = Theme Session, = Presenter
Activity Number: 339
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 10, 2005 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Survey Research Methods
Abstract - #302550
Title: Investigation of Variances for Model-based Seasonal Adjustments
Author(s): William Bell*+
Companies: U.S. Census Bureau
Address: 4700 Silver Hill Road, Washington, DC, 20233-9100,
Keywords: sampling error ; decomposition uncertainty
Abstract:

This paper compares alternative definitions of seasonal adjustment variances and examines the relative contributions of various error components. In particular, when we account for sampling error components of time series, we can consider either the variance of the estimate of the nonseasonal component of the true series or the variance of the seasonally adjusted series (observed series minus estimated seasonal component). The magnitudes of these variances can be quite different. We also can examine the effects on seasonal adjustment variances of uncertainty about model parameters and of decomposition uncertainty. This is examined in several examples.

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