JSM 2005 - Toronto

Abstract #302547

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Legend: = Applied Session, = Theme Session, = Presenter
Activity Number: 424
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 10, 2005 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
Abstract - #302547
Title: Hierarchical Bayesian Matrix Models for Describing the Spatio-temporal Population Dynamics of Invasive Species
Author(s): Mevin B. Hooten*+ and Christopher K. Wikle
Companies: University of Missouri, Columbia and University of Missouri, Columbia
Address: Department of Statistics, Columbia, MO, 65211,
Keywords: ecology ; spatio-temporal ; invasive species ; dispersal
Abstract:

Spatial growth and dispersal of biotic organisms as a function of time has been recognized as an important subject throughout the relatively short history of ecology as a science. Ecologists are able to accurately describe survival and fecundity in plant and animal populations; however, the dynamics of dispersal are rarely measured and not well understood. Of particular interest are the dynamics of invasive species. Such nonindigenous animals and plants can levy significant impacts on native biotic communities. A better quantitative understanding of the dynamics of an invasion would be beneficial to all branches of ecology (and other biological sciences). In this paper, we adopt a hierarchical Bayesian framework for modeling the invasion of such species. Our approach accounts for various sources of uncertainty as well as spatially varying carrying capacities and dispersal rates that help alleviate inflated abundance estimates and provide more realistic results. The dynamics between discrete time points are intuitively modeled using separable density-dependent growth and dispersal components.

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