JSM 2005 Online Program

Abstract #302514

This is the preliminary program for the 2005 Joint Statistical Meetings in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 7-10, 2005); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

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Activity Number:	1
Type:	Invited
Date/Time:	Sunday, August 7, 2005 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor:	Biopharmaceutical Section
Abstract - #302514
Title:	Assessing the Probability That a Positive or Negative Report Is False
Author(s):	Sholom Wacholder*+
Companies:	National Cancer Institute
Address:	6120 Executive Blvd., EPS8046, Rockville, MD, 20852, United States
Keywords:	multiple comparisons ; genetics ;
Abstract:	The strategy of declaring statistical significance based on a P value below .05 leads to an unacceptable chance of a positive claim being false when the prior probability of an effect is low, as in many studies of gene-cancer association. The false positive report probability (FPRP), the probability of no true association between a genetic variant and disease given a statistically significant finding, depends not only on the observed P value, but also on both the prior probability that the association between the genetic variant and the disease is real and the statistical power of the test. In this paper, we developed a four-step method, usable by nonstatisticians, to assess the FPRP and help decide whether a finding is deserving of attention or "noteworthy." Analogously, the false negative report probability (FNRP), the probability of a true association between a genetic variant and disease given a negative finding, can be used to decide when there is convincing evidence of no effect. This approach can lead to improvements in the design, analysis, and interpretation of studies in epidemiology and other areas.

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