JSM 2005 Online Program

Abstract #304531

This is the preliminary program for the 2005 Joint Statistical Meetings in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 7-10, 2005); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

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Activity Number:	510
Type:	Topic Contributed
Date/Time:	Thursday, August 11, 2005 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor:	Section on Statisticians in Defense and National Security
Abstract - #304531
Title:	Time-distributed Effect of Exposure and Infectious Outbreaks
Author(s):	Elena Naumova*+ and Ian MacNeill
Companies:	Tufts University and The University of Western Ontario
Address:	136 Harrison Avenue, Boston, MA, 02111, United States
Keywords:	distributed lag model ; Poisson regression ; outbreak signature ; time series analysis ; Monte Carlo simulations
Abstract:	In assessing associations between environmental exposures and infectious diseases, failure to account for a latent period between time of exposure and time of disease manifestation may lead to severe underestimation of the effects. To consider such time-distributed lags is a challenging task because the length of a latent period for food- or water-borne infections varies from hours to months and depends on the kind of pathogen, individual susceptibility to the pathogen, dose of exposure, and route of transmission. However, if person-to-person transmission is low, a distribution of delay may concur with a distribution of pathogen-specific incubation time. In our recent work, we outlined the framework for modeling outbreaks of water-borne and food-borne infections based on a notion of a disease "signature" and suggested a number of techniques to characterize lagged exposure-outcome relations.

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