JSM 2005 Online Program

Abstract #304262

This is the preliminary program for the 2005 Joint Statistical Meetings in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 7-10, 2005); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

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Activity Number:	510
Type:	Topic Contributed
Date/Time:	Thursday, August 11, 2005 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor:	Section on Statisticians in Defense and National Security
Abstract - #304262
Title:	A Study of the Performance of Multivariate Forecast-based Surveillance Schemes for Infectious Diseases on Multiple Locations
Author(s):	Bo Hong*+ and J. Michael Hardin
Companies:	Pioneer Hi-Bred International and University of Alabama
Address:	428 Blue Earth St, Mankato, MN, 56001, United States
Keywords:	Multivariate Surveillance ; Forecast Recovery ; Autocorrelation ; Simulation ; Evaluation ; Time-Space
Abstract:	This paper examines the statistical properties of multivariate forecast-based surveillance schemes for detecting increased incidence of reported morbidity or mortality from multisite disease surveillance systems, such as influenza and pneumonia mortality from the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System. The dynamic response and behavior of forecast errors after experiencing a shift in the process mean level have a significant effect on the performance of control charts. Simulation and analytical techniques were used to study the particular forecast recovery phenomenon for multivariate autocorrelated (time-space) processes and recommendations were made concerning the most appropriate control chart to use in a variety of situations based on several evaluation criterion for statistical surveillance.

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