JSM 2005 Online Program

Abstract #304098

This is the preliminary program for the 2005 Joint Statistical Meetings in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 7-10, 2005); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

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Activity Number:	90
Type:	Topic Contributed
Date/Time:	Monday, August 8, 2005 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor:	Biopharmaceutical Section
Abstract - #304098
Title:	A Selection Model for Survival Data with Possible Nonrandom Censoring: An Illustration of Time-to-pregnancy Sensitivity Analysis
Author(s):	Pai-Lien Chen*+ and Marlina Nasution
Companies:	Family Health International and Family Health International
Address:	P O Box 13950, RTP, NC, 27709, United States
Keywords:	Kaplan-Meier estimates ; Markov chain Monte Carlo methods ; Non-random censoring ; Selection model ; Survival analysis
Abstract:	Standard survival distribution estimates are biased when the censoring mechanism is non-andom. Thus, when a large percentage of observations are censored from a trial, questions arise regarding the robustness of results obtained using analysis methods that assume random censoring. In this study, we propose a sensitivity analysis approach for estimating survival distributions with possible nonrandom censoring via a selection model. Our approach jointly models the survival time and censoring process. Samples from the joint posterior distribution of the selection model parameters are obtained using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. They are then used to derive a weighted Kaplan-Meier estimate of the survival distribution. We demonstrate the advantages of the proposed approach by a simulation study. We apply the approach to a clinical trial designed to estimate the pregnancy probabilities for users of two contraceptive devices.

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