JSM 2005 - Toronto

Abstract #303842

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Legend: = Applied Session, = Theme Session, = Presenter
Activity Number: 230
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 9, 2005 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Biopharmaceutical Section
Abstract - #303842
Title: A Simple Method for Constructing Binomial Confidence Intervals with Near-nominal Coverage by Adding a Single, Imaginary Failure or Success.
Author(s): Craig Borkowf*+
Companies: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Address: 125 Briarvista Way NE, Atlanta, GA, 30329-3614, United States
Keywords: adverse event ; Agresti-Coull method ; binomial proportion ; clinical trial ; Clopper-Pearson method ; confidence interval
Abstract:

In this talk we present a simple method for constructing confidence intervals for binomial proportions with near-nominal coverage for all proportion parameters on the unit interval. This new method employs the standard normal approximation technique taught in introductory statistics classes with a slight modification. That is, we first augment the observed binomial data with an imaginary failure to compute the lower bound and an imaginary success to compute the upper bound. By contrast, the Agresti-Coull method adds the same number of imaginary successes and failures to the observed data, yet it still can give somewhat subnominal coverage. As motivation, we discuss the relationship between this new method and the Clopper-Pearson exact method. We also present numerical calculations to illustrate the satisfactory performance of this new method compared with several common alternatives. Finally, we argue that for certain statistical applications, such as the design and analysis of clinical trials with adverse events, this new method represents a valuable complementary approach.

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Revised March 2005