JSM 2005 Online Program

Abstract #303517

This is the preliminary program for the 2005 Joint Statistical Meetings in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 7-10, 2005); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

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Activity Number:	283
Type:	Luncheons
Date/Time:	Tuesday, August 9, 2005 : 12:30 PM to 1:50 PM
Sponsor:	Section on Physical and Engineering Sciences
Abstract - #303517
Title:	The Role of Statistical Science in Understanding Climate Change
Author(s):	Douglas Nychka*+
Companies:	National Center for Atmospheric Research
Address:	PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO, 80305, United States
Keywords:	spatial statistics ; computer models ; fourty-two
Abstract:	The influence of human activities on the earth's climate is by now largely undisputed, and the potential for even greater changes in this century confront us. The grand challenge for climate science is to understand the complex feedback that balance and amplify processes in the earth's climate system and to provide projections of what we might expect for the future. An important use of these climate projections is translating them into economical and societal impacts. Impacts of climate change are useful in making policy and planning decisions that can range from a utility company anticipating future power demand for heating and cooling, to a public health department evaluating changes in infectious disease patterns, to a country reducing greenhouse gas emissions. To progress from large-scale chemical and physical models to results useful for a policy- or decisionmaker, one must consider a range of spatial and temporal scales and also substantial components of uncertainty. The progression from geophysical models to a finding suitable for policy might be characterized as an end-to-end analysis.

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