JSM 2005 - Toronto

Abstract #303478

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Legend: = Applied Session, = Theme Session, = Presenter
Activity Number: 527
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Thursday, August 11, 2005 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Survey Research Methods
Abstract - #303478
Title: Investigation of Extreme Estimates of Census Coverage Error for Small Areas
Author(s): Mary H. Mulry*+ and Bruce D. Spencer and Eric L. Schindler and Tom Mule and Nganha Nguyen
Companies: U.S. Census Bureau and Northwestern University and U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Census Bureau
Address: Statistical Research Division, Washington, DC, 20233, United States
Keywords: undercount ; dual system estimation ; Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation Survey ; synthetic estimation ; Census 2000
Abstract:

Extreme estimates of census coverage error for a large number of small areas were a major problem for a revision of the Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation (A.C.E.) Survey estimates of coverage of Census 2000, called A.C.E. Revision II. The existence of extreme estimates was a major reason the U.S. Census Bureau did not use the A.C.E. Revision II estimates in the intercensal estimates program. The estimation of coverage error used dual-system estimation for poststrata and synthetic estimation within the poststrata for small areas. This paper reports the results of an investigation into the cause and source of the extreme estimates. The examination includes the effect of having different poststratification variables in the enumeration (E) and population (P) samples, the effect of the A.C.E. sample design, and the effect of the estimates of the number of duplicate enumerations in Census 2000. Also included are suggestions of alternatives for estimation methodology that would reduce the possibility of extreme estimates for small areas.

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