JSM 2005 - Toronto

Abstract #302704

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Legend: = Applied Session, = Theme Session, = Presenter
Activity Number: 10
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Sunday, August 7, 2005 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: ENAR
Abstract - #302704
Title: Forward and Backward Recurrence Times and Length Biased Sampling: Age-Specific Models
Author(s): Marvin Zelen*+
Companies: Harvard University
Address: , , MA, 02115,
Keywords: Forward recurrence times ; backwards recurrence times ; lenght biased sampling ; screening
Abstract:

This talk will discuss non-stationary processes and how they affect the recurrence time distributions. The discussion will be in the context of a disease process. Consider a chronic disease process beginning to be observed at a point in chronological time. The backward and forward recurrence times are defined for prevalent cases as the time with disease and the time to leave the disease state, respectively, where the reference point is the point in time at which the disease process is being observed. In this setting, the incidence of disease affects the recurrence time distributions. In addition, the survival of prevalent cases will tend to be greater than the population with disease due to length biased sampling. A similar problem arises in models for the early detection of disease. In this case, the backward recurrence time is how long an individual has had disease before detection and the forward recurrence time is the time gained by early diagnosis (i.e., until the disease becomes clinical by exhibiting signs or symptoms). In these examples, the incidence of disease may be age-related, resulting in a nonstationary process.

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Revised March 2005