JSM 2005 Online Program

Abstract #302703

This is the preliminary program for the 2005 Joint Statistical Meetings in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 7-10, 2005); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

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Activity Number:	250
Type:	Invited
Date/Time:	Tuesday, August 9, 2005 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor:	Section on Risk Analysis
Abstract - #302703
Title:	Vehicle Rollover Risk Analysis: Metrics and Methods
Author(s):	Duane Steffey*+ and Alan Donelson and Helene Grossman and Ke Zhao
Companies:	Exponent, Inc. and Consultant and Exponent, Inc. and Exponent, Inc.
Address:	149 Commonwealth Drive, Menlo Park, CA, 94025, United States
Keywords:	motor vehicle ; accident ; exposure ; causal inference ; attributable risk
Abstract:	An issue in traffic safety dating back to the late 1960s, the "rollover propensity" of light passenger vehicles became increasingly important as sport utility vehicles (SUVs) gained greater share of the market. Remarkably, key questions remain concerning how to measure rollover risk and assess the relative importance of potential contributing factors. For example, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has adopted the statistic single-vehicle rollovers per single-vehicle crash as a primary measure of rollover risk. We consider arguments for and against using this ratio, as opposed to alternative measures, to assess risk. Also, motor vehicle crashes typically involve complex interactions among human, environmental, and vehicular factors. We examine the suitability of various statistical methods, including logistic regression and propensity score analysis, for attributing risk among these competing factors.

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