JSM 2005 - Toronto

Abstract #302541

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Legend: = Applied Session, = Theme Session, = Presenter
Activity Number: 251
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 9, 2005 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: General Methodology
Abstract - #302541
Title: Defining and Estimating Intervention Effects for Groups Who Will Develop an Auxiliary Outcome
Author(s): Marshall M. Joffe*+
Companies: University of Pennsylvania
Address: 602 Blockley Hall, Philadelphia, PA, 19104-6021, USA
Keywords: causal inference ; auxiliary variables
Abstract:

Nephrologists have been frustrated by the lack of a good means to modify the course of end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and would like to intervene before the development of ESRD to positively benefit the course of disease after ESRD diagnosis. The notion of the effect of a treatment given before the change in an auxiliary variable (here, ESRD) on subsequent outcomes (e.g., mortality) is surprisingly hard to formalize; the difficulty results from the fact that not all subjects will develop the auxiliary outcome. This presentation considers several ways to formalize the effects: principal stratification, stratification on a single potential auxiliary variable, stratification on an observed auxiliary variable, and stratification on expected levels auxiliary variables. In this paper, we consider estimation of each of these effects and compare the usefulness of the estimands for understanding causal processes and for decisionmaking. Throughout, we use the nephrology study to motivate and guide our methodological development.

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Revised March 2005