JSM 2005 - Toronto

Abstract #302500

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Legend: = Applied Session, = Theme Session, = Presenter
Activity Number: 305
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 9, 2005 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Biopharmaceutical Section
Abstract - #302500
Title: Probability in Decisionmaking and Bayesian Inference
Author(s): John Seaman*+ and Stacy R. Lindborg
Companies: Baylor University and Eli Lilly and Company
Address: Department of Statistical Science, Waco, TX, 76798-7140, United States
Keywords: Bayesian inference ; probability ; p-values
Abstract:

In this talk, we will argue for the use of probability in the representation of uncertainty as a part of decisionmaking---the so-called "inevitability of probability." Problems with the use of p-values for decisionmaking in clinical trials, including their misinterpretation, will be discussed. We will provide an introduction to the determination of probabilities for making decisions using Bayesian inference, including the elicitation of prior distributions. This will lead us to practical alternatives to the use of p-values. We will conclude with a simple example.

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Revised March 2005