JSM 2005 Online Program

Abstract #302471

This is the preliminary program for the 2005 Joint Statistical Meetings in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 7-10, 2005); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

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= Applied Session,

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= Presenter

Activity Number:	10
Type:	Invited
Date/Time:	Sunday, August 7, 2005 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor:	ENAR
Abstract - #302471
Title:	A Natural History Model for Prostate Cancer: Implications on Prevention and Screening Policies
Author(s):	Lurdes Y. T. Inoue*+ and Ruth Etzioni and Christopher Morrell and Peter Müller
Companies:	University of Washington and Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and Loyola College in Maryland and The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center
Address:	F-600 Health Sciences Building, BOX 357232, Seattle, WA, 98195,
Keywords:	Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) ; prostate cancer ; Bayesian hierarchical models ; change-point models
Abstract:	In this talk, we will present a Bayesian natural history model for disease progression based on the joint modeling of a longitudinal biomarker, time to clinical detection of disease, and disease status at the time of diagnosis. We will establish a connection between the longitudinal responses and the natural history of the disease by using an underlying latent disease process that describes the onset of the disease and models the transition to an advanced stage of the disease as dependent on the biomarker levels. We will apply our model to the data from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging on prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and investigate the natural history of prostate cancer and design strategies for screening and prevention of prostate cancer.

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