JSM 2005 - Toronto

Abstract #302444

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Legend: = Applied Session, = Theme Session, = Presenter
Activity Number: 10
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Sunday, August 7, 2005 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: ENAR
Abstract - #302444
Title: Screening Studies and Natural History Models of Cancer
Author(s): Paul Pinsky*+
Companies: National Cancer Institute
Address: 6130 Executive Blvd., Bethesda, MD, 20892,
Keywords: screening ; natural history ; cancer ; lead time ; sensitivity ; modeling
Abstract:

In this paper, we discuss several approaches to modeling the natural history of cancer and show how these models can be fit to data from cancer screening studies. The models are of the convolution type and involve one or two preclinical states. These models allow for the estimation of sojourn time, lead time, sensitivity, and other quantities of interest in evaluating the potential benefits of screening programs.

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Revised March 2005