JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #302237

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Activity Number: 171
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 10, 2004 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Journal of Business and Economic Statistics (JBES)
Abstract - #302237
Title: The Sensitivity of Economic Statistics to Coding Errors in Personal Identifiers
Author(s): Lars Vilhuber*+ and John M. Abowd
Companies: Cornell University and Cornell University and U.S. Census Bureau
Address: 6900 Rue France, Montreal, PQ, H2G 2Z6, Canada
Keywords: flow statistics ; probabilistic matching ; transitions ; tenure ; job flow ; job creation ; QWI
Abstract:

We describe the sensitivity of small-cell flow statistics to coding errors in the identity of the underlying entities. Specifically, we present results based on a comparison of the U.S. Census Bureau's Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) before and after correcting for such errors in SSN-based identifiers in the underlying individual wage records. The correction used involves a novel application of existing statistical matching techniques. It is found that even a very conservative correction procedure has a sizable impact on the statistics. The average bias ranges from 0.25% to 15% for flow statistics, and up to 5% for payroll aggregates.

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