JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #302213

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Activity Number: 200
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 10, 2004 : 9:00 AM to 10:50 AM
Sponsor: Biometrics Section
Abstract - #302213
Title: Estimating Disease Prevalence Based on Data from Population-based Registries
Author(s): Limin Clegg*+ and Mitchell H. Gail and Mourad Touzani
Companies: National Cancer Institute and National Cancer Institute and Mathematica Policy Research, Inc.
Address: NIH, 6116 Executive Blvd., MSC 8316, Bethesda, MD, 20892-8316,
Keywords:
Abstract:

We propose a new "Poisson" method to estimate the variance for prevalence estimates obtained by the counting method described by Gail et al. (1999) and to construct a confidence interval for the prevalence. We evaluate both the Poisson procedure and the procedure based on the bootstrap proposed by Gail et al. in simulated samples generated by resampling real data. These studies show that both variance estimators usually perform well and yield coverages of confidence intervals at nominal levels. When the number of disease survivors is very small, however, confidence intervals based on Poisson method have supra-nominal coverage, whereas those based on the procedure of Gail et al. tend to have below nominal coverage. For these reasons we recommend the Poisson method, which also reduces the computational burden considerably.

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