JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #302065

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Activity Number: 406
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Thursday, August 12, 2004 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Business and Economics Statistics Section
Abstract - #302065
Title: Shewhart's Dilemma
Author(s): Joyce N. Orsini*+
Companies: Fordham University
Address: Graduate School of Business, Deming Scholars MBA Program, New York, NY, 10023,
Keywords: Shewhart ; Deming ; control chart ; enumerative vs. analytic studies ; process control ; probability
Abstract:

Walter A. Shewhart tried to find ways to use probabilistic statistics in the creation of his control chart. He observed, however, that process data do not meet the criteria for use of probability. Process data come not from a fixed frame, nor are they randomly selected. They are not iid variables. And he made no such assumption. He realized he was in a different world than classic statistical theory. He concluded that his results were empirically determined. It wasn't until some 20 years later that W. Edwards Deming shed some light on the quandary by drawing a distinction between enumerative and analytic studies. Shewhart was clearly in the analytic realm. This paper will explore how Shewhart reached his conclusions, why he couldn't use probability, and why his analytic control chart bears such close resemblance to enumerative statistics, where probability might have been used.

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