JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #302008

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Activity Number: 233
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 10, 2004 : 12:00 PM to 1:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Risk Analysis
Abstract - #302008
Title: Evaluating Sufficient Similarity for Disinfection By-Product Mixtures
Author(s): Zhenxu J. Ma*+ and Paul I. Feder and Dick J. Bull and K. Schenck and J. E. Simmons and Linda K. Teuschler and Glenn Rice
Companies: Battelle and Battelle and MoBull Consulting and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Address: 505 King Ave., Columbus, OH, 43201,
Keywords: Disinfection By-Product (DBP) mixtures ; Monte Carlo method ; bootstrap hypothesis test procedure ; sufficient similarity
Abstract:

Chemical mixtures risk-assessment methods propose sufficient similarity as a key concept for evaluating complex environmental mixtures. If two mixtures are judged to be sufficiently similar, then toxicity data for one mixture can be used as a surrogate when conducting a quantitative risk assessment for the other. An important class of environmental complex mixtures arises as disinfection by-products (DBP). This presentation proposes two alternative statistical methods to assess the similarity of DBP mixtures. In the first method, a multivariate index was developed combining the water chemical composition and the health effects information of each mixture (e.g., carcinogenic, reproductive, neurological effects). A Monte Carlo method was developed to propagate the uncertainty in the health effects specific index governed by assumed distribution, to be used in statistical comparisons among water characteristics such as water sources, treatment plants, and distribution systems. In the second method, a bootstrap hypothesis test procedure under a MANOVA model was developed to test the effects of these factors on the similarity of the DBP mixtures.

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