Urban Sprawl/Effect and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Bayesian Spatial Analysis with Maps

• Activity Number: 272
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Tuesday, August 10, 2004 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
• Author(s): Gerald Shoultz*+
• Companies: National Center for Health Statistics
• Keywords: spatial analysis ; urban sprawl ; COPD ; chloropleth maps

Abstract

Prior research which uses spatial and Bayesian methods for modeling age-specific mortality rates for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) suggest that some urban effect may be an important explanatory variable in such modeling. Indeed, a cursory look at the literature indicates that rates of asthma and other COPD's tend to be higher in urban areas than other areas. Recent studies indicate a potential association between urban sprawl/development and obesity, with residual effects for such health conditions/diseases as hypertension, cardiovascular disease, etc. This research addresses two issues in the study of sprawl/development: (1) Measurement: How is urban sprawl/development measured? And (2) Impact: How does urban sprawl/development relate to mortality rates of COPD? Census 1990 and 2000 data and other data are used to develop indices of urban sprawl/effect; such indices are used as covariates to model COPD mortality data for White and non-White individuals (by gender) in the 1999-2001 period using Bayesian and Spatial methods. Chloropleth maps of mean COPD rates are presented, as are variation maps showing areas where inferences may not be reliable.