JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #301709

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Activity Number: 332
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 11, 2004 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
Abstract - #301709
Title: Modeling Genetic Change in the PRRS Virus in Pigs
Author(s): Philip Dixon*+
Companies: Iowa State University
Address: Dept. of Statistics, Ames, IA, 50011-1210,
Keywords: mutation ; hierarchical model ; latent abundance
Abstract:

The PRSS virus causes catastrophic losses in production pig operations. The virus and disease were unknown prior to the late 1980s. The epidemiology of the disease suggests that the virus genome mutates rapidly. Mutation rates were estimated by in-vivo passage of the virus through seven generations of pigs. Each generation, the viral pool was sampled by sequencing 15 viral clones. This approach underestimates genetic change because rare clones are unlikely to be detected. A model for the genetic change can be constructed as a Bayesian hierarchical model. This combines a model for the mutation process, a model for the abundance of each sequence over time, and a model for the sampling process. Such a model can account for unobserved mutations. Inference is by MCMC. The model will be validated by comparing data collected from generations 8-15 to model projections.

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