State Seasonal Adjustment under NAICS in the Current Employment Statistics Program

• Activity Number: 159
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Monday, August 9, 2004 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
• Sponsor: Business and Economics Statistics Section
• Author(s): John Stewart*+
• Companies: Bureau of Labor Statistics
• Keywords: Current Employment Statistics ; state and area seasonal adjustment

Abstract

In January 2003 the Current Employment Statistics (CES) Program, as a part of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Payroll Survey, transitioned from the Standard Industrial Classification System to the North American Industrial Classification System. Data used to reconstruct the unadjusted series did not use sample-based data, and as such, limited the publication and creation of statewide seasonally adjusted data for such series. Historical studies of statewide seasonally adjusted data indicate the presence of distinct and differing seasonal patterns (being divided into historical, or benchmarked data, and current, or sample data) of the same time series, and as such, seasonal factors could not be forecasted without sample-based data. This challenge was met through the development of a methodology for reconstructing sample-based data to provide a forecast of seasonal factors for Supersectors and total nonfarm time series at the statewide level. This methodology, as well as a review of the historical methodology of adjusting both a historical and current time series will be discussed, with conclusions focused upon possible improvements for future years.