JSM 2004 Online Program

Abstract #301592

This is the preliminary program for the 2004 Joint Statistical Meetings in Toronto, Canada. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 7-10, 2004); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

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Activity Number:	48
Type:	Contributed
Date/Time:	Sunday, August 8, 2004 : 4:00 PM to 5:50 PM
Sponsor:	Section on Physical and Engineering Sciences
Abstract - #301592
Title:	Enhanced Monte Carlo Estimation of the Probability of Failure in Aircraft Turbine Engines
Author(s):	Peter W. Hovey*+
Companies:	University of Dayton
Address:	300 College Park, Dayton, OH, 45431-2316,
Keywords:	Monte Carlo ; Gumbel ; aircraft safety
Abstract:	Aircraft turbine engines must be designed to achieve an extremely high reliability. Current design strategies are focused on achieving a specific probability of failure for the engine. Traditional Monte Carlo techniques require excessive computing time because of the complexity of the finite element calculations that determine when a failure occurs. A new method for analyzing Monte Carlo results based on extreme value theory is discussed that significantly decreases the number of simulations that are required, thus increasing computation speed.

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