JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #301580

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Activity Number: 159
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 9, 2004 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Business and Economics Statistics Section
Abstract - #301580
Title: Accounting for Business Births and Deaths in the Bureau of Labor Statistics CES State and Area Program
Author(s): Brian Dahlin*+
Companies: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Address: 2 Massachusetts Ave. NE, Washington, DC, 20212,
Keywords: birthdeath estimation ; Current Employment Statistics ; Bureau of Labor Statistics
Abstract:

The Current Employment Statistics (CES) Program of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes national, state, and metropolitan area employment data by industry on a monthly basis. Selection of our survey sample occurs on an annual basis. An unavoidable lag exists from the date of the sample draw to the monthly estimation of industry employment. During the lag period, new businesses may form and existing ones may disappear--referred to as "births" and "deaths," respectively. Business births and deaths may contribute to nonsampling error in CES estimates. To reduce this error, an internally developed estimation and modeling technique is applied. The technique utilizes establishment micro-data from from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Longitudinal Database. This article summarizes improvements made to the net births model in recent years and discusses ongoing efforts to improve its accuracy.

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