JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #301511

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Activity Number: 59
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Sunday, August 8, 2004 : 6:00 PM to 7:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Survey Research Methods
Abstract - #301511
Title: Graphical Display of Uncertainty and Related Tools for Inference
Author(s): John L. Eltinge*+
Companies: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Address: 2 Massachusetts Ave., NE, Washington, DC, 20212,
Keywords: confidence sets ; Current Employment Statistics (CES) Program ; false discovery rate ; small-area estimation ; simultaneous inference ; triple-goal estimation
Abstract:

Small-domain estimation methods use regression, hierarchical modeling, and related tools to combine sample survey data and auxiliary information to produce estimators for a relatively large number of subpopulations. Some practical applications of these methods are complicated by two factors. First, anecdotal evidence indicates that in some cases stakeholders attempt to use published small-domain estimates to carry out exploratory analyses and related (informal) simultaneous inference. Second, many stakeholders have relatively limited previous training in statistics. To address these issues, this poster presents some relatively simple graphical methods for display of small-domain estimates and related measures of uncertainty. For cases involving univariate estimates, the triple-goal approach of Shen and Louis (1998) provides a useful framework for development of three types of graphical displays. For cases involving multivariate comparisons, projections of confidence sets and related simultaneous inference methods lead to some alternative graphical approaches.

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